IMF Trims Philippines Growth Outlook for 2025–26

The Philippines growth outlook has been revised lower by the International Monetary Fund, which now expects the economy to expand 5.1% in 2025 and 5.6% in 2026, both below the government’s 6%–7% target range.

The IMF said the weaker Philippines growth outlook reflects higher US tariffs weighing on exports and investment, alongside global trade-policy uncertainty, corruption allegations linked to flood-control projects and more frequent climate shocks.

While disinflation has been achieved, demand softened after a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the third quarter.

Inflation is projected to average 1.7% in 2025 before rising to 2.8% in 2026 as base effects fade, giving the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas scope to keep policy supportive after cutting its key rate to 4.5%.