Hong Kong GDP Growth Forecast Raised to 3.2% as Citi Sees Broad Recovery

Hong Kong GDP growth forecast has been raised by Citi to 3.2% for 2026, the bank’s second upgrade in about two weeks and a cumulative increase of 0.7 percentage points.

Citi said the economy kept recovering in the fourth quarter, with strong investment growth and steadily improving consumption pushing domestic demand beyond expectations.

It added the rebound is broad-based across finance, property and retail.

Citi expects residential home prices to rise 8% this year and sees the Hang Seng Index at 28,800 by end-June and near 30,000 by year-end.

It expects the 2026–27 budget later this month to support underperforming sectors, while warning of structural pressure on SMEs, AI upgrade costs, weak retail foot traffic and commercial property non-performing loan risks.