Vietnam 2026 Growth Outlook Hinges on Consumption Rebound and Public Investment

Vietnam’s 2026 growth outlook will hinge on a recovery in domestic consumption, effective policy execution and sustained public investment, analysts said.

Nguyen Xuan Thanh of the Fulbright School said household spending remains the biggest uncertainty, although industrial-zone employment is improving and tourism-related services are rebounding.

A stronger social safety net and concrete reforms could help restore confidence, he said.

Vietnam public investment will remain a key growth engine, with state budget plans putting 2026 capital spending at nearly 8% of GDP, up 10.3% from 2025.

Exports remain crucial for employment, but the government is targeting about 8% export growth in 2026, down from 17% in 2025.

Business leader Dinh Hong Ky said infrastructure projects, from metro lines to Long Thanh airport, should keep investment elevated.