Southeast Asia Gains from US–China Trade Rift as Exports Accelerate

Southeast Asia has emerged as a beneficiary of the US–China trade rift, with exports to the United States growing faster than China’s, according to analysis by the Lowy Institute.

Shipments from the 11-member ASEAN bloc to the US rose 23% in September from a year earlier, led by Thailand and Vietnam, while China’s share of the American market declined.

The divergence reflects steep US tariffs on Chinese goods, averaging 31%, compared with roughly 11% for many Southeast Asian economies, boosting their competitiveness.

Earlier concerns that cheaper Chinese goods would overwhelm regional manufacturers have so far proved overstated, with ASEAN exports to other destinations also increasing.

The Lowy Institute said diversified supply chains and closer geopolitical alignment with Washington position Southeast Asia to benefit from deeper rules-based trade.