IMF Warns G20 Facing Weakest Growth Outlook Since 2009

The IMF says the G20 growth outlook is the weakest since the 2009 financial crisis, with the bloc projected to expand just 2.9% by 2030 as protectionism, tariffs and policy uncertainty weigh on trade and investment.

Advanced G20 economies are forecast to grow only 1.4%, far below the 3.9% expected for emerging markets.

The Fund expects G20 output to rise 3.2% in 2025 before easing to 3.0% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024.

It warned that higher tariffs risk driving inflation higher even as disinflation continues, projecting G20 headline inflation at roughly 3.5% next year, while US core inflation may not reach the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until 2027.