Hong Kong Growth Forecast Raised to 4.5% by UBS

The Hong Kong growth forecast for 2026 has been raised by UBS to 4.5% from 3.3%, placing the bank's outlook above the market consensus of 3.5%.

Hong Kong's economy expanded 4.3% year on year during the second quarter, below expectations of 4.9%.

Nevertheless, UBS expects steady growth to continue, supported by the development and implementation of China's next Five-Year Plan.

Song Yu, chief China economist at UBS Securities, said policy priorities have shifted towards supporting growth, with monetary and fiscal measures likely to adjust accordingly.

UBS expects the Five-Year Plan to help stabilise economic activity across business cycles while improving Hong Kong's medium- and long-term growth potential.

The upgraded outlook could strengthen investor confidence in Hong Kong assets and support continued activity across capital markets, private banking and regional wealth management.