China US Tariffs Expected to Rise by Most Chinese Executives, UBS Finds

China US tariffs are expected to increase by the end of 2026, according to more than half of Chinese corporate executives surveyed by UBS, while 40% anticipate tariff reductions.

The UBS China C-Suite survey, conducted from May to mid-June, found that 57% of respondents expected bilateral relations to deteriorate, compared with only 12% anticipating improvement.

Despite trade concerns, exporters reported improving demand. A net 14% said orders had strengthened from a year earlier, reversing declines recorded in previous surveys.

UBS also found that 54% of manufacturers with significant overseas exposure were planning or considering moving production offshore, down from a peak of 77% in 2024.

Nearly 80% of producers surveyed already operate outside mainland China, with more than 40% of their production capacity and capital expenditure located overseas, highlighting the continued internationalisation of Chinese manufacturing.