World Bank cuts 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3%

The World Bank cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3%, down 0.4 percentage point, citing rising trade barriers and heightened uncertainty linked to US tariff policy. Its Global Economic Prospects report downgraded growth estimates for nearly 70% of economies, including the US, China, and Europe. US growth was revised down to 1.4%, while the euro area and Japan are both seen expanding just 0.7%. Trade growth is projected at 1.8%, a sharp slowdown from pre-pandemic levels. High tariffs and retaliatory measures risk further dampening activity. Inflation is forecast to stay elevated at 2.9%. Despite weak outlooks, the risk of a global recession remains below 10%, with officials noting potential recovery in 2026 if uncertainty eases.