Thailand GDP beats forecast on pre-tariff orders

Thailand’s economy grew 3.1% year-on-year in Q1, beating expectations as businesses rushed orders ahead of a possible 36% US tariff, the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday. Quarterly growth came in at 0.7%, above the 0.5% estimate. Despite the surprise upside, the state agency slashed its 2024 growth forecast to 1.3–2.3%, citing trade war risks. The US remains Thailand’s top export destination, and pending tariff talks have cast a shadow over economic prospects. Domestic demand is weak, tourism is hit by China’s slowdown, and stimulus efforts face fiscal constraints. Moody’s cut Thailand’s rating outlook to negative, while the Bank of Thailand warned GDP could slow to 1.3%—the weakest since the pandemic—if US levies materialise. PM Paetongtarn pledged stimulus, risking higher debt.