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S&P cuts Philippines 2024 GDP outlook to 5.8%

S&P Global Ratings lowered its GDP forecast for the Philippines, predicting 5.8% growth for 2024, down from 5.9%, and 6.1% for 2025, down from 6.2%. These projections are below the government’s targets of 6-7% for 2024 and 6.5-7.5% for 2025. S&P Senior Economist Vincent Conti cited high interest rates as a factor dampening domestic demand. In Q1, the Philippine economy grew by 5.7%, with household consumption up by 4.6%, its slowest since Q1 2021. S&P expects the benchmark rate to be 6.25% by end-2024, implying a 25-bp cut. Despite challenges, the Philippines is anticipated to have the second-fastest growth in the Asia-Pacific region this year, behind India, and tied with Vietnam. Inflation is projected to average 3.4% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025.


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