Philippines a safe haven amid global trade risks, UBS says

UBS Investment Bank expects the Philippines to remain relatively insulated from global trade uncertainties and retaliatory tariffs, citing the country’s limited exposure to global trade and its domestic-driven economy. The bank forecasts minimal economic impact, with a potential drag of about 30 basis points on growth, one of the lowest in Southeast Asia. The Philippines’ low reciprocal tariff rate and limited goods exports to the US contribute to its status as a regional safe haven amid trade tensions. UBS also sees further rate cuts and easing inflation supporting the economy this year. Separately, Moody’s warned of supply chain disruptions across Asia-Pacific exporters, highlighting the need for businesses to improve resilience and agility to navigate rising costs and demand uncertainty from the US market.