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Asean+3 growth slows as US-China tariff tensions rise



The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro) has lowered its 2025 growth forecast for Asean+3 economies, citing expected U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese imports as a key factor. The tariffs, projected to rise by 25%, are likely to dampen U.S. demand and weigh on exports, dragging regional growth. Amro now forecasts 2025 GDP growth at 4.2%, down from 4.4%, with Asean growth trimmed to 4.8% and the plus-three economies (China + Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea) to 4%. Inflation in the region fell to 1.7% in 2024 but is forecast to rise to 2.1% this year, reflecting stronger domestic demand and supply-side adjustments. Regional central banks have started easing monetary policy as inflationary pressures moderate, said Amro chief economist Khor Hoe Ee.


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